That’s the Census Bureau’s estimate of the U.S. population for tomorrow, Jan. 1, 2009. The number is up 2,743,429, or 0.9 percent, from New Year’s Day 2008.

Here’s an easy prediction for the New Year: We’ll be hearing a lot more about the Census Bureau as it prepares for the 2010 decennial headcount. Meanwhile, here’s the agency’s outlook on population growth in the near term. It’s a little mind-bending.

In January 2009, one birth is expected to occur every eight seconds in the United States and one death every 12 seconds. Meanwhile, net international migration is expected to add one person every 36 seconds to the U.S. population in January 2009, resulting in an increase in the total U.S. population of one person every 14 seconds.

(Photo: New Year’s in Malaysia, AP)

Here’s more analysis about the new population estimates for New York state. Fewer people are coming and going, it appears. Both immigration and out-migration — people leaving the state — are slowing down, says our data analyst Tim Henderson.

Immigration to New York has fallen from a peak of nearly 130,000 a year in 2001 to less than 95,000 in each of the last two years, he points out. Meanwhile, out-migration has dropped from a peak of about 250,000 a year in 2005 to about 126,000 this year.

So the net loss from comings-and-goings (immigration and migration combined) was about 31,000 this year, down from a peak of almost 150,000 in 2005. So why is New York’s population growing slightly? The “natural increase” in population — the number of births outpacing the number of deaths — has been holding steady about about 100,000 a year, keeping the population on the rise.

The Census Bureau has new estimates of state populations today: New York grew ever so slightly this year, by roughly .3 percent. That’s an estimated 60,981 people added to the population between 2007 and 2008, Journal News data analyst Cathey O’Donnell says.

The new figures show that New York, which ranks third in total population behind California and Texas, had an estimated 19,490,297 people in 2008. Since Census 2000, the state has grown by 513,840 people, or 3 percent, over the last eight years. New Jersey and Connecticut also grew 3 percent.

The country as a whole is growing faster, adding about 22.6 million people, or 8 percent, in the last eight years. In 2008, the U.S. population is estimated at 304,059,724, up 2.7 million from the previous year.

Only two states lost population from 2007 to 2008: Rhode Island and Michigan.

The killings of two Ecuadorean immigrants on Long Island and last week in Brooklyn, has prompted a national organization to call for the passage of a hate crimes bill.

The National Council of La Raza, together with the National Hispanic Leadership Agenda on Capitol Hill, are urging Congress and the new administration under Barack Obama to prioritize “Local Law Enforcement Hate Crimes Prevention Act.”

The hate crimes bill, otherwise known as the Matthew Shepard Act, gives the justice department the power to assist state and local jurisdictions in cases of violent crimes motivated by bias and resulting in death or severe bodily injury.

This is what La Raza CEO and President Janet Murguia said about the topic:

President-Elect Obama and the new Congress should not waste any time in immediately passing the ‘Local Law Enforcement Hate Crimes Prevention Act’ so that more lives are not lost in senseless attacks. The wave of hate unleashed by the polarized debate over immigration has led to an increase in violence and hate groups targeting Latinos. These recent deaths are a direct outcome of the anger and hatred spurred on by people who mischaracterize all Latinos and the institutions that serve them as a threat to our country.

Which areas of New York have the largest percentage of immigrants? New census data has given us a lot more detail about that. Our story in The Journal News yesterday highlighted the two municipalities in the state with the highest percentage: Port Chester and Spring Valley, both nearly half foreign-born.

It’s an interesting detail for those of us north of the city, though it should be duly noted that there are NYC neighborhoods with a higher concentration than that. Elmhurst, Queens, is about 70 percent foreign-born.

For more detail on immigrant concentrations in the New York metro area, click on the map, created by our data analyst Tim Henderson. You can roll over certain areas of the city and suburbs to see what percentage of people are foreign-born.

If you’d like to see further detail about the immigrant population based on citizenship and English-speaking ability, click here for a table that breaks down the data for each community. Let us know if you spot any noteworthy numbers.

In response to another fatal attack on an Ecuadorian man in New York — another incident being investigated as a hate crime — comes this statement from a half-dozen community groups:

December 9, 2008, New York City. We are shocked and saddened by the vicious hate attack on brothers Jose and Romel Sucuzhanay early Sunday morning in Bushwick, Brooklyn—an attack during which the assailants shouted anti-Latino and anti-gay slurs, and which has taken the life of Jose Sucuzhanay. We express our deepest condolences to the Sucuzhanay family.

Our communities stand together to condemn this hateful violence, and call for the perpetrators to be brought to justice.

In recent years, New York’s African-American and immigrant communities have come together to build closer ties and work toward shared solutions for the challenges we face.

Tragic events such as this serve to bring renewed urgency to the need to continue building those bridges between our communities, and to promote a sense of shared understanding and common purpose in this, the most diverse city in the world.

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Greeley grad Parag Khanna, author of “The Second World: Empires and Influence in the New Global Order,” will speak at his onetime local library in Chappaqua tomorrow night. Born in India, Khanna is director of the Global Governance Initiative and senior research fellow in the American Strategy Program at the New America Foundation. And, he came in as No. 1 on Wired Magazine’s 2008 Smart List.

Reporter Elizabeth Ganga has the details here. His discussion begins at 7:30 p.m. tomorrow at the Chappaqua Library, 195 S. Greeley Ave.

Here are communities in the tri-state area with the highest concentrations of immigrants, based on new estimates from the Census Bureau. Obviously the raw numbers vary widely. New York City has more than 3 million foreign-born residents. Peekskill has about 9,400.

(Not included are communities with fewer than 20,000 people overall.)

West New York, New Jersey, 59.1 percent foreign-born
Union City, New Jersey, 58.4 percent
Spring Valley village, New York 48.7 percent
Fort Lee borough, New Jersey 47.8 percent
Elizabeth city, New Jersey 46.4 percent
Passaic city, New Jersey, 45.8 percent
Port Chester village, New York; Bergenfield borough, New Jersey 45.1 percent
Elmont, New York, Cliffside Park borough, New Jersey, 43.8 percent
Kearny town, New Jersey, 42.8 percent
Garfield city, New Jersey, 40 percent
Brentwood, New York, 39.1 percent
Perth Amboy city, New Jersey, 38.3 percent
Hempstead village, New York, 38.1 percent
Hackensack city, New Jersey, 37.7 percent
Orange, New Jersey, 37.1 percent
Peekskill city, New York; Central Islip, New York; Jersey City, New Jersey; New York City, 36.7 percent

Source: Census Bureau 2005-2007 American Community Survey. Compiled by Tim Henderson/The Journal News.

New census data out today is giving us a clearer picture of the local immigrant population in specific communities. Here’s one factoid: Spring Valley (in Rockland County) and Port Chester (here in Westchester) top the charts in New York State with the highest percentage of foreign-born residents.

In Spring Valley, 48.7 percent of residents are foreign-born, the highest percentage in the state, says Tim Henderson of our data desk. That’s up from 43 percent in 2000.

In Port Chester, 45.1 percent are foreign-born. That’s up from 41.4 percent in 2000. In New York City as a whole, 36.7 percent foreign-born.

The new data looks at communities of 20,000 residents or more, so it leaves out smaller enclaves like Sleepy Hollow and Mount Kisco.

Fully one-quarter of Westchester County’s population are foreign born, according to census estimates. That 25 percent figure is up from 22 percent in 2000. The Hispanic population has reached 19 percent, up from 15.6 percent in 2000.

I happened to be on the way to a citizenship ceremony in White Plains when I noticed a sign advertising “The Melting Pot.” This chain restaurant happens to have a fair number of immigrants on staff, I was told, but beyond that, there’s not much of an immigration theme. It’s a fondue place.

Anyway, that prompted me to look into the origin of the “melting pot” term. It’s an idealist notion from a century ago, an alternative to the “Anglo conformity” that was being pushed by Anglo-Protestants as newcomers brought their own traditions, James S. Olson writes in “The Ethnic Dimension in American History.” The idea wasn’t just that everyone in America would mix together, but that the different ingredients would create an entirely new identity.

I consulted Julie Leininger Pycior, a professor of history at Manhattan College. She puts it this way:

The interpretation in vogue today equates the melting pot with assimilation and acculturation… Actually, the melting pot originally meant the forging of a brand-new culture out of
the various traditions…

The original theme was explored in Englishman Israel Zangwill’s 1909 play “The Melting-Pot,” which can be read online here. In the play, a Jewish refugee describes his idealistic vision of an America that forges a new identity out of many. He holds forth even as others around him squabble over their cultural differences.

… Not understand! … Not understand that America is God’s Crucible, the great Melting Pot where all the races of Europe are melting and reforming! Here you stand, good folk, think I, when I see them at Ellis Island, here you stand in your fifty groups, with your fifty languages and histories, and your fifty blood hatreds and rivalries. But you won’t be long like that, brothers, for these are the fires of God you’ve come to — these are the fires of God.

… the real American has not yet arrived. He is only in the Crucible, I tell you — he will be the fusion of all races, perhaps the superman.

As the story continues, the characters’ past allegiances, religious differences and the violence of Europe prove impossible to leave behind. The young musician’s notion is tested as events unfold. But then he comes around to watching the sun set over New York, and imagines that he’s watching that giant furnace in action.

There she lies, the great Melting Pot — listen! Can’t you hear the roaring and the bubbling? There gapes her mouth … the harbor where a thousand mammoth feeders come from the ends of the world to pour in their human freight. Ah, what a stirring and a seething!

So we’re not talking melted cheese here. We’re talking chemistry; forged metal; a “smelting” pot, in other words.

In his 1999 book, Olson compares this notion with reality of America over the last century:

The naiveté of the melting-pot ideal came in its assumption that the new culture would appear quickly, fusing every race, color, religion, language, and nationality group into a new whole. … The melting pot may be bubbling, but it is still a long way from creating an America of one race, one religion, and one culture. Pluralism, not complete assimilation, is the reality of life in the United States.

Which brings us back to food metaphors. In Canada, I’ve heard people describe their culture as more of a “tossed salad” than a melting pot. Here in the States, I heard one priest describe our society as more of a “stew.” So, maybe fondue isn’t such a stretch after all.